According to Mark Twain, “History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme”. Little did he know that one day that would hold true for something called “Biotech”. Indeed, there seems to be a lot of rhyming going on with Biotech IPOs today with recent history.
When we compare the accumulated number of IPOs in the last IPO window (2003-2007) with the current window (2009-now), we see an amazing overlay. Not identical, but not too far from it. As of March 2012, we have 34 IPOs. That compares to 33 back in March 2006:
If this continues through 2012, we will add 12 more IPOs over the next three quarters, for a grand total of 46 IPOs since 2009. Then in 2013, we would need to see 20 more to reach the final 2007 goal of 66 IPOs.
After that, let’s hope Twain’s observations no longer hold true, and we don’t repeat 2008.