Last week, EvaluatePharma released their updated sales and R&D outlook for the drug industry in their report “World Preview 2013, Outlook to 2018”. Among the 37 pages of data, one central take home message was that growth will return to the sector after a small dip in 2012. Behind this predicted comeback in sales growth is the rise of biologics products that continue to gain a larger percentage of total revenue. Consider the data below taken from the report:
Biologics sales, as a percent of total sales, is expected to be twice that of 2004, to 24 percent in 2016. Meanwhile, the percentage of sales from small molecule drugs is dropping.
One factor influencing this shift has been the enormous amount of sales erosion from the entry of generic small molecules. As peak sales numbers for blockbuster small molecules are coming down, more biological products (with more distant patent expirations and less cataclysmic sales cliffs) are entering the market. In fact, EvaluatePharma estimates that by 2018, 50 percent of sales from the top 100 products are expected to be generated by biologics.
(The full report from EvaluatePharma can be downloaded free here.)