One of the most strikingly circular arguments put forward to support inclusion of current estimates of indirect land use change emissions in both California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard and the EPA’s Renewable Fuel Standard Life Cycle Assessment is that these estimates are so large. The University of California Berkeley Letter to EPA from Michael O’Hare et al. and the previous letter to California’s Air Resources Board by the same group (Mark Delucchi et al.) are examples of the argument:
The salience of this requirement lies in the size of current estimates of these indirect emissions: added to typical direct emissions values, they indicate that substituting certain biofuels, especially corn ethanol, for gasoline will actually increase the global warming (GW) intensity of motor fuel, or decrease it so little (depending on how it is calculated) that these biofuels would fail to meet EISA required GHG reductions.”
The best methods currently available for estimating market-mediated effects are economic models such as partial and general equilibrium models. Several groups are currently employing these models to estimate indirect LUC, and despite considerable uncertainty, none has concluded that zero grams of CO2 per megajoule is the best estimate of the effect. Ignoring an effect that may be large simply because it is uncertain is unjustifiable.”
And once again:
So far no models, in particular no peer-reviewed models, have been advanced that come up with values for iLUC that are significantly lower than those in the Searchinger et al paper.”
So in the spirit of the holiday season, I’d like to offer a similar argument. This year, 2008, will be the 50th anniversary of the North American Aerospace Defense Command’s (NORAD) tradition of tracking Santa’s flight from the North Pole around the world. The tradition began in 1955, but NORAD inherited it in 1958. Fifty-plus years of scientific modeling and measurement of the phenomenon ought to be considered proof positive that Santa Claus exists.
Happy Holidays everyone.